* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OTIS EP182023 10/25/23 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 95 85 78 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 95 66 49 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 95 65 48 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 162 172 183 187 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.7 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 151 145 144 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 55 51 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 78 72 70 70 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 30 15 31 42 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -77 -117 -152 -182 -220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.7 101.0 101.2 101.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 11 10 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -8. -11. -12. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -21. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.8 100.4
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182023 OTIS 10/25/23 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.12 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 550.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.57 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182023 OTIS 10/25/23 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##