* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PILAR EP192023 11/02/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 44 44 45 46 47 49 48 46 43 42 42 44 44 44
V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 44 44 45 46 47 49 48 46 43 42 42 44 44 44
V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 41 40 38 38 39 41 44 44 41 35 28 22 17 N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 11 8 7 10 8 10 10 8 16 17 26 27 30 42 50 50
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 0 -1 -3 0 0 2 10 13 9 12 3 2 8
SHEAR DIR 191 206 208 190 204 243 272 251 223 237 217 230 256 255 263 275 276
SST (C) 28.9 29.1 28.4 28.1 28.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.5
POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 150 148 151 159 158 156 151 153 154 149 149 151 147 144 138
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 76 76 71 68 68 69 62 57 57 62 60 56 48 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 21 24 23 12 6 8 1 4 17 9 -2 -12 -10 -9 7 0 -8
200 MB DIV 4 1 13 4 -6 -51 -29 -27 -9 39 53 31 23 33 17 5 14
700-850 TADV 12 12 10 10 9 6 3 0 0 -2 1 2 1 5 6 7 7
LAND (KM) 254 390 464 523 610 826 969 1057 1170 1253 1312 1383 1429 1458 1514 1560 1637
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.0 11.5 11.1 10.7 9.8 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.5 11.1 11.5 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 93.3 94.7 96.1 97.7 99.3 102.5 105.4 107.9 110.2 112.2 113.7 115.2 116.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 16 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 8 10 10 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 14 20 11 7 10 15 14 14 12 19 20 14 12 14 10 7 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 20. 28. 33. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. 42. 40. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -4. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 93.3
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192023 PILAR 11/02/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 5.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -6.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 18.5% 14.3% 11.3% 7.6% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.4% 24.7% 6.3% 3.8% 1.1% 2.8% 0.2% 2.4%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.9% 14.5% 6.9% 5.0% 2.9% 6.3% 0.1% 0.8%
DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192023 PILAR 11/02/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##