* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* RAMON EP202023 11/25/23 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 32 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 27 35 39 42 49 50 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 -1 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 268 269 267 266 267 269 273 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 136 135 135 133 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 54 55 52 48 44 35 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -60 -54 -38 -17 -13 -19 -14 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 7 9 24 36 39 -1 -34 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 -1 2 6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1625 1597 1569 1560 1552 1575 1590 1625 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 122.9 122.9 122.8 122.9 122.9 123.2 123.6 124.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 1 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -21. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -20. -32. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 122.9
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202023 RAMON 11/25/23 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.58 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.1 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202023 RAMON 11/25/23 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##