* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NONAME CP882024 03/15/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 74 77 75 72 70 72 79 89 94 94 92 92 93 102 96 85 77
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 0 5 6 10 10 3 2 -2 -4 -9 -14 -26 -21 -14 -2
SHEAR DIR 272 274 269 268 273 289 301 296 295 281 267 255 246 252 258 257 244
SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 25.5 25.2 24.3 24.7 24.0 22.6 20.5 20.3 20.7 19.4 18.6 17.3
POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 126 126 126 120 118 109 114 108 94 72 70 75 67 66 64
200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.5 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.1 -49.4 -50.5 -53.0 -55.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 33 29 28 24 23 26 29 43 52 59 59 53 50 57 69 77 80
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -55 -55 -48 -40 -37 -24 -40 -24 -28 -34 -36 -40 -7 22 43 30 104
200 MB DIV 34 9 7 11 17 -1 11 20 37 39 45 17 16 28 65 70 211
700-850 TADV -7 -5 -2 1 0 1 6 6 5 1 13 -4 -16 8 67 43 36
LAND (KM) 1138 1123 1177 1232 1304 1496 1751 2062 2264 1742 1178 595 -12 -364 -290 -301 -462
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.7 15.2 17.1 19.5 22.0 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 147.2 147.4 146.9 146.3 145.5 143.1 140.0 136.4 132.2 127.4 122.4 117.1 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 6 7 9 14 17 19 23 26 27 29 29 31 30 25 18
HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 831 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 32. 31. 26. 21. 18. 17. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -10. -15. -32. -58. -88. -114. -132. -144. -150. -153. -148. -142. -144. -146.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -6. -6. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -16.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -20. -39. -64. -88. -109. -122. -132. -139. -146. -149. -147. -147. -140.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 147.2
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP882024 NONAME 03/15/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 100.3 30.9 to 7.7 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.5 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882024 NONAME 03/15/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##