* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TEST CP892024 04/17/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 58 50 40 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 60 61 58 50 40 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 60 64 62 56 49 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 28 30 32 39 47 53 57 66 68 56 43 38 37 22 19 21 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 15 20 20 19 17 12 6 6 16 16 11 8 14 17 11 6
SHEAR DIR 253 252 242 244 258 269 254 264 266 264 250 244 246 251 269 274 274
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 148 148 147 148 151 151 151 155 156 155 153 151 151
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 58 55 51 53 59 58 54 52 56 53 58 60 64 66 67 69 73
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -31 -21 -11 -10 -11 -20 -22 -9 3 15 19 17 21 18 11 -4 -18
200 MB DIV 126 101 36 -6 -29 8 35 36 25 -5 9 39 66 95 90 36 -5
700-850 TADV 1 2 4 6 4 -1 5 7 0 2 5 5 0 1 0 8 10
LAND (KM) 1463 1436 1405 1382 1366 1364 1421 1513 1633 1782 1912 2050 2236 2310 2396 2538 2664
LAT (DEG N) 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.4 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 154.6 155.5 156.5 157.4 158.3 160.0 162.0 163.8 165.5 167.3 169.3 171.6 174.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 10 10 8 9 10 10 12 14 14 13 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 64 60 53 51 51 33 18 36 36 39 60 74 58 72 94 42 41
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 34. 36. 37. 36. 34. 31. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -15. -23. -43. -67. -91. -109. -118. -121. -123. -120. -106. -84. -63. -45.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -11. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -11. -8. -4. -2.
PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -10. -20. -44. -68. -89. -105. -112. -113. -113. -107. -94. -75. -56. -45.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 5.8 154.6
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP892024 TEST 04/17/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.46 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 62.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.53 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP892024 TEST 04/17/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##