* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* RITEST AL862024 04/18/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 70 62 54 39 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 80 77 70 62 54 39 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 80 80 75 68 60 46 35 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 37 33 39 41 37 36 33 37 43 38 35 35 33 30 28 28 29
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 12 13 16 11 9 6 1 6 9 3 1 3 2 4 0
SHEAR DIR 212 210 211 225 233 239 249 240 246 240 235 240 242 236 228 211 234
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.6 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 143 144 143 143 144 143 141 140 139 130 129 125 119 159
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 7 9 8
700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 69 65 61 61 57 56 54 54 53 55 55 57 58 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -2 1 1 -3 -10 -16 -22 -19 -25 -17 -28 -18 -6 4 25 36 37
200 MB DIV 67 56 86 88 59 51 9 18 -20 -10 -1 -24 -5 26 31 6 49
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 2 2 -2 -3 -5 -8 -2 0
LAND (KM) 184 192 182 184 187 210 228 157 104 124 143 153 140 124 63 -110 -52
LAT (DEG N) 7.6 8.1 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.6 10.3 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.0 12.1 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 55.8 56.9 57.3 57.5 57.7 58.2 58.9 59.5 60.3 61.1 62.1 63.2 64.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 9 4 3 3 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 44 43 42 41 40 41 38 35 26 20 17 17 9 8 4 1 63
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 826 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 16. 16. 16. 14. 14. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -13. -20. -25. -35. -43. -52. -63. -73. -79. -84. -84. -81. -75. -74. -74.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -18. -26. -41. -52. -61. -68. -75. -78. -78. -76. -71. -62. -55. -50.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 7.6 55.8
** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL862024 RITEST 04/18/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 58.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.30 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL862024 RITEST 04/18/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL862024 RITEST 04/18/2024 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 70 62 54 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 80 79 72 64 56 41 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 80 77 76 68 60 45 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 62 47 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT