* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TESTBUILD EP862024 05/01/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 61 59 55 52 47 43 38 33 27 25 21 21 21 17
V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 61 59 55 52 47 43 38 33 27 25 21 21 21 17
V (KT) LGEM 60 65 66 65 62 56 50 45 40 34 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 13 16 18 19 21 16 23 29 30 33 45 41 30 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 13 13 10 8 7 0 5 0 3 10 19 8 12 14 9
SHEAR DIR 235 239 249 290 321 341 301 299 282 254 248 253 245 270 263 241 224
SST (C) 30.3 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.8 27.6 26.2 25.0 23.6 23.1 22.6
POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 165 166 167 166 164 158 154 152 152 139 124 112 98 94 90
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.9 -55.3 -55.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 48 45 45 45 46 42 44 40 42 42 43 42 43 41 40 38 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -14 -21 -26 -30 -27 -26 -20 -27 -26 -31 -33 -21 -28 -39 -44 -27 -23
200 MB DIV 45 62 20 15 2 2 11 -11 -5 -34 11 49 45 69 26 3 -21
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 1 1 2 3 4 0 -11 -19
LAND (KM) 708 732 752 779 810 839 864 902 938 994 1067 1065 997 880 705 476 199
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 14.2 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.0 101.0 102.2 103.3 104.4 105.9 107.4 108.8 110.1 111.4 112.8 114.2 115.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 10 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 11 14
HEAT CONTENT 77 78 74 65 50 51 73 44 37 38 45 24 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. 24. 24. 22. 18. 13. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -23. -25. -26. -25. -23. -20.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1.
PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -13. -17. -22. -27. -33. -35. -39. -39. -39. -43.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 10.0 100.0
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP862024 TESTBUILD 05/01/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.66 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.8 49.8 to 0.0 0.50 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 32.4% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.0% 3.4% 4.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 12.0% 9.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP862024 TESTBUILD 05/01/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##