* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NONAME CP882024 05/01/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 77 79 84 86 84 77 72 77 83 92 95 94 87 86 82 78 73
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -12 -14 -15 -7 -5 -11 -18 -28 -27 -27 -22 -25 -21 -16 -14
SHEAR DIR 266 270 273 266 263 257 259 270 276 285 283 278 276 274 271 269 257
SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.1 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.1 23.8 23.3 23.8 24.0 23.9 23.4
POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 117 116 115 114 113 106 103 102 102 99 93 97 100 100 96
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 0
700-500 MB RH 26 26 28 29 30 32 34 35 36 34 31 28 26 28 30 37 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 30 19 7 -1 -6 -15 -23 -17 -14 -2 -4 -1 -18 -9 -6
200 MB DIV -11 -58 -64 -30 -10 -17 35 -1 0 -21 -23 25 19 29 16 45 33
700-850 TADV 0 -4 -6 3 13 6 2 -2 0 -11 -10 -10 2 7 11 2 0
LAND (KM) 1208 1141 1145 1165 1197 1303 1429 1560 1710 1853 1990 2126 2243 2239 2167 2059 1874
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 145.0 145.6 145.5 145.1 144.6 143.2 141.8 140.4 138.9 137.5 136.2 134.9 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 3 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 4 6 10
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 828 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 12. 8. 3. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -12. -24. -44. -68. -92. -112. -129. -143. -153. -152. -146. -143. -135.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. -13. -14.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -16. -30. -52. -75. -100. -121. -139. -154. -166. -169. -166. -166. -165.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 145.0
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP882024 NONAME 05/01/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.45 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 102.4 30.9 to 7.7 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882024 NONAME 05/01/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##