* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NONAME CP882024 05/02/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 79 83 87 90 85 93 106 107 110 105 99 82 66 75 69 75 83
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -13 -16 -21 -15 -21 -37 -36 -45 -33 -31 -9 0 -10 -2 -5 -8
SHEAR DIR 271 270 262 265 268 280 274 270 260 257 259 277 286 304 293 274 257
SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.1 25.8 25.7 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.8 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 119 121 122 120 118 120 123 124 121 120 126 123 123 121 123
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.2 -50.5 -49.7 -50.0 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 25 27 29 32 34 34 36 40 45 51 53 52 47 41 35 29 29
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 8 -1 -7 -5 -15 -21 -19 -23 -31 -34 -42 -35 -36 -23 -15
200 MB DIV -76 -53 -21 -9 -28 0 9 8 73 50 28 -1 -40 -80 -58 -47 9
700-850 TADV -1 -2 1 7 8 5 11 10 13 3 0 -8 -8 -10 -4 -6 -8
LAND (KM) 1078 988 900 813 729 578 454 380 406 519 636 677 769 897 1054 1219 1392
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 146.3 147.3 148.2 149.2 150.1 152.0 153.9 155.8 157.7 159.6 161.5 163.4 165.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 821 (MEAN=588)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. 25. 23. 22. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -12. -27. -54. -86. -118. -143. -163. -173. -178. -171. -160. -155. -145.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 17. 16. 12. 9. 6. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -15.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -13. -25. -47. -75. -107. -134. -154. -166. -172. -169. -159. -154. -148.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 146.3
** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP882024 NONAME 05/02/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 103.4 30.9 to 7.7 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882024 NONAME 05/02/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##