* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NONAME CP882024 05/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 30 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 30 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 28 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 84 82 85 92 100 103 110 114 111 113 108 103 81 68 61 62 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -17 -16 -14 -23 -37 -42 -58 -61 -54 -57 -44 -46 -19 -10 -8 -11 -18 SHEAR DIR 269 271 272 272 276 276 272 264 254 250 243 241 246 255 258 272 278 SST (C) 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.3 23.2 22.8 22.5 22.2 22.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 116 111 108 108 105 101 98 96 96 94 92 92 87 84 81 82 81 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.5 -55.3 -55.9 -54.1 -52.4 -51.3 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 25 24 23 24 24 26 26 29 30 34 37 43 48 44 42 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -5 -14 -10 -19 -12 -22 -21 -3 0 -8 -14 -12 -17 -6 3 10 200 MB DIV -10 -15 -5 -12 -1 -2 -3 36 30 33 60 53 57 6 6 0 -28 700-850 TADV 1 -1 4 5 4 16 9 0 -9 -9 -2 6 1 3 -2 -4 -10 LAND (KM) 586 543 539 552 570 620 658 701 734 780 832 894 984 1057 1123 1209 1322 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.2 22.0 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.1 150.0 149.8 149.5 148.9 148.5 148.1 147.8 147.4 147.0 146.6 146.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 4 3 4 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 4 3 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -9. -18. -33. -56. -84. -107. -126. -138. -147. -148. -149. -155. -158. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 28. 25. 20. 13. 10. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -27. -48. -80. -110. -135. -153. -169. -179. -185. -195. -201. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 149.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP882024 NONAME 05/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 104.0 30.9 to 7.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 49.8 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882024 NONAME 05/03/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##