* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BERYL AL022024 07/02/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 135 127 120 114 109 99 91 86 83 79 81 81 81 80 79 78 74
V (KT) LAND 135 127 120 114 109 99 91 86 49 46 48 48 48 41 34 30 28
V (KT) LGEM 135 126 116 109 103 95 90 87 50 50 55 60 66 63 45 34 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 23 15 21 10 12 11 6 9 4 2 4 4 11 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 7 2 1 0 0 4 5 0 4 8 0 2 0
SHEAR DIR 298 279 272 276 280 259 260 216 210 244 150 211 160 340 294 280 218
SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.6 31.1 31.3
POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 156 158 159 163 163 158 151 153 150 156 160 164 169 169 169
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 11 12 13 10 11
700-500 MB RH 63 59 56 56 59 60 65 66 66 64 66 66 65 56 57 60 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 19 19 19 18 18 17 17 18 17 18 18 18 18 18 16 15
850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 37 42 49 21 23 21 0 -3 0 -1 7 7 22 26 34
200 MB DIV 73 67 35 40 59 17 34 -7 18 37 16 31 29 26 44 56 57
700-850 TADV 12 14 20 20 9 6 0 2 8 1 6 1 -2 -5 -2 -8 0
LAND (KM) 277 167 160 146 32 206 286 43 -104 160 338 187 77 -12 -27 -73 -149
LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 69.9 71.6 73.3 75.0 76.8 80.3 83.8 87.0 89.4 91.8 94.2 95.9 96.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 17 17 17 16 14 12 12 10 8 6 5 5 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 97 59 48 50 71 47 88 35 5 23 25 42 35 31 42 12 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -1. -5. -12. -22. -32. -41. -47. -50. -54. -58. -62. -64. -65.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -17. -20. -26. -25. -20. -15. -9. -4. -0. 4. 9. 13. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -26. -36. -44. -49. -52. -56. -54. -54. -54. -55. -56. -57. -61.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.6 69.9
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/02/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.41 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 888.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.01 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .9% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/02/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/02/2024 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 48 33( 65) 28( 75) 21( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 73 18( 78) 35( 86) 35( 91) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 127 120 114 109 99 91 86 49 46 48 48 48 41 34 30 28
18HR AGO 135 134 127 121 116 106 98 93 56 53 55 55 55 48 41 37 35
12HR AGO 135 132 131 125 120 110 102 97 60 57 59 59 59 52 45 41 39
6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 120 110 102 97 60 57 59 59 59 52 45 41 39
NOW 135 126 120 117 116 106 98 93 56 53 55 55 55 48 41 37 35
IN 6HR 135 127 118 112 109 103 95 90 53 50 52 52 52 45 38 34 32
IN 12HR 135 127 120 111 105 101 93 88 51 48 50 50 50 43 36 32 30