* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BERYL AL022024 07/07/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 55 57 62 62 62 52 50 47 43 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 55 57 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 52 54 52 35 29 27 27 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 3 4 9 25 37 46 49 53 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -3 -8 -4 0 5 6 1 3 3 3 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 184 196 193 184 211 238 217 214 221 227 233 225 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.9 32.0 32.2 31.9 31.0 31.0 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 165 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 172 171 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.7 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 11 13 9 11 6 9 3 9 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 55 57 55 53 52 57 51 47 38 36 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 17 16 18 16 19 14 18 19 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -4 -9 -19 -6 1 34 24 19 25 -4 19 2 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 32 0 2 23 12 57 58 16 17 -9 -16 -11 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 8 7 0 0 8 -9 11 1 -4 -2 -1 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 388 296 208 156 134 -27 -180 -305 -404 -513 -604 -733 -919 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.0 25.5 26.2 26.9 28.5 30.1 31.8 33.3 34.5 35.8 37.3 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.4 95.1 95.6 96.1 96.7 96.9 96.1 94.6 92.7 90.7 88.9 87.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 35 42 42 39 38 45 7 7 8 7 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -5. -3. -10. -7. -6. -8. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 12. 12. 2. -0. -3. -7. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.4 93.6
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022024 BERYL 07/07/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 3.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 1.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.83 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 31.8% 16.1% 9.5% 7.4% 17.8% 15.2% 15.0%
Logistic: 9.8% 27.1% 22.5% 8.7% 3.1% 8.1% 2.7% 0.1%
Bayesian: 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.5% 20.0% 13.2% 6.1% 3.5% 8.7% 6.0% 5.0%
DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 3.7% 13.0% 8.6% 4.0% 2.2% 4.8% 3.0% 2.5%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022024 BERYL 07/07/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022024 BERYL 07/07/2024 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 55 57 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 55 50 33 27 26 25 25 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 50 45 28 22 21 20 20 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT