* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BUD EP022024 07/26/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 27 25 24 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 30 27 25 24 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 30 26 23 22 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 4 5 7 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 0 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 23 339 338 314 305 306 289 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 132 131 127 125 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 59 58 57 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -22 -24 -21 -27 -34 -34 -21 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -34 -27 -8 8 7 -4 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 0 2 1 0 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 940 1005 1076 1137 1197 1309 1458 1581 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.6 18.2 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.4 120.3 121.1 121.8 123.2 124.8 126.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.7 118.4
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022024 BUD 07/26/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 3.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.71 3.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -4.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 -0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 14.2% 9.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.3% 5.0% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .6% 2.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022024 BUD 07/26/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##