* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CARLOTTA EP032024 08/01/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 59 67 74 86 89 88 83 80 72 68 63 59 57 56 53
V (KT) LAND 45 52 59 67 74 86 89 88 83 80 72 68 63 59 57 56 53
V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 63 69 80 87 89 87 86 80 73 67 62 59 55 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 5 2 0 6 3 3 6 9 5 6 9 12 10 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 0 2 3 0 -1 0 2 5
SHEAR DIR 353 346 321 310 326 145 194 150 60 150 150 157 168 225 233 229 193
SST (C) 30.0 29.6 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 27.6 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.4 25.7 25.6 25.0 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 156 155 155 153 152 140 140 133 129 124 116 119 119 114 113
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -50.6 -51.2 -50.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 70 71 67 66 66 69 69 72 74 71 70 61 52 37
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 20 24 25 26 26 28 26 25 23 22 20 18 16
850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 48 50 51 59 69 78 75 62 66 52 66 68 69 75 60
200 MB DIV 41 77 60 35 14 51 72 58 44 2 19 9 4 19 16 -11 -31
700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 4 2 0 6 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 491 554 622 647 652 742 905 1050 1174 1230 1243 1262 1327 1436 1587 1790 2069
LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 17.7 17.8 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.4 110.4 111.4 112.4 114.6 116.7 118.9 120.5 121.5 122.1 123.0 124.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 4 5 6 7 8 10 13 15
HEAT CONTENT 28 21 17 21 20 14 15 7 10 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 14. 16. 13. 11. 8. 6. 3. 2. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 9. 1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12.
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TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 29. 41. 44. 43. 38. 35. 27. 23. 18. 14. 12. 11. 9.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 108.4
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/01/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 12.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.5
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 8.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -11.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 4.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 7.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 1.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.92 2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 -0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 23.2% 55.1% 41.4% 28.7% 17.8% 41.2% 40.8% 17.6%
Logistic: 14.5% 45.9% 24.7% 17.8% 5.0% 12.4% 1.5% 1.9%
Bayesian: 2.8% 7.9% 2.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Consensus: 13.5% 36.3% 22.9% 15.9% 7.7% 18.2% 14.2% 6.5%
DTOPS: 15.0% 36.0% 20.0% 15.0% 6.0% 30.0% 16.0% 11.0%
SDCON: 14.2% 36.1% 21.4% 15.4% 6.8% 24.1% 15.1% 8.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/01/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##