* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* CARLOTTA EP032024 08/01/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 72 80 82 81 76 71 65 59 55 51 48 45 41
V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 66 72 80 82 81 76 71 65 59 55 51 48 45 41
V (KT) LGEM 50 55 58 62 66 72 76 77 76 73 70 64 59 55 51 47 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 2 3 7 8 5 7 10 4 10 12 18 18 19 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 1 -2 0 -1 -3 0 1 0 -1 -3 -2 2 3
SHEAR DIR 327 305 295 296 337 201 215 202 192 200 207 193 179 179 185 192 195
SST (C) 29.6 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.1 24.9 25.1
POT. INT. (KT) 161 156 155 154 154 151 144 138 133 130 124 117 119 119 113 112 114
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 70 69 64 64 66 68 69 72 73 69 61 56 46 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 18 19 22 24 25 24 25 24 22 21 20 18 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 55 54 60 58 75 75 65 84 75 73 88 80 68 54 61
200 MB DIV 67 57 32 28 37 51 83 60 49 51 32 17 2 -2 -6 -23 9
700-850 TADV -1 0 4 0 -5 7 0 4 0 1 0 5 4 4 3 3 5
LAND (KM) 548 615 631 643 675 812 970 1098 1223 1278 1277 1320 1420 1539 1681 1860 2083
LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.2 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.4 111.4 112.5 113.5 115.8 117.8 119.8 121.5 122.5 123.1 124.0 125.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 6 4 4 6 7 8 8 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 21 18 21 19 15 12 10 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 13. 13. 11. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8.
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TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 30. 32. 31. 26. 21. 15. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -9.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.8 109.4
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/01/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.62 10.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.4
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.65 8.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -10.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 4.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 7.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 6.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 1.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.86 2.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 -0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 48.9% 37.2% 24.4% 15.3% 31.9% 21.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.9% 25.6% 12.4% 7.7% 1.8% 3.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Bayesian: 0.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 7.4% 25.8% 16.8% 10.8% 5.7% 11.8% 7.2% 0.1%
DTOPS: 17.0% 35.0% 24.0% 18.0% 13.0% 17.0% 8.0% 3.0%
SDCON: 12.2% 30.4% 20.4% 14.4% 9.3% 14.4% 7.6% 1.5%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA 08/01/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##