*                  GFS version                   *
                                 * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  CARLOTTA    EP032024  08/02/24  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    55    59    63    67    70    72    68    64    55    50    44    41    36    29    24    20    17
V (KT) LAND       55    59    63    67    70    72    68    64    55    50    44    41    36    29    24    20    17
V (KT) LGEM       55    58    60    61    62    62    60    56    50    46    43    41    38    33    28    23    19
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         7     6     4     9    12     6    13    12    10    15    12    11    13    18    17    18    19
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     0     1    -1    -3     1     0     1     2    -3    -2    -3     2     5     2     1     1
SHEAR DIR        317   324   248   235   232   210   209   223   203   205   220   254   262   241   217   223   227
SST (C)         29.0  28.8  28.3  28.0  28.2  27.3  26.6  26.2  25.5  25.5  25.5  24.5  23.9  23.9  24.0  24.1  24.2
POT. INT. (KT)   155   153   147   145   147   137   130   125   117   117   117   107   100   100   102   104   105
200 MB T (C)   -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.2   0.4   1.4   0.6   1.0   0.5   1.1   1.0   0.6   0.6   0.2  -0.2   0.0   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       5     4     4     3     3     2     2     2     2     2     3     2     2     2     3     4     5
700-500 MB RH     70    70    68    65    64    65    64    63    60    60    55    54    46    41    33    27    20
MODEL VTX (KT)    18    18    19    20    21    21    20    20    18    17    16    16    13    11     8     6     4
850 MB ENV VOR    54    57    56    55    57    61    61    57    62    55    57    56    47    35    21    13     0
200 MB DIV        26    56    76    44    48    53    47    37     0    11    -1     2   -23   -30   -29   -11     0
700-850 TADV       5    -3     0     2     2     3     9     5     5     1     1     0     4     4     5     6     7
LAND (KM)        617   647   694   762   840   977  1118  1231  1343  1444  1558  1666  1789  1900  2010  2006  1756
LAT (DEG N)     17.8  18.0  18.2  18.4  18.5  18.6  18.9  19.2  19.4  19.6  19.7  20.0  20.3 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)    112.3 113.4 114.4 115.5 116.6 118.8 120.9 122.8 124.5 126.0 127.5 129.0 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    10    10    10    11    10    10    10     9     8     7     7     7     7     7     8    10    12
HEAT CONTENT      18    14    10     8    11     5     1     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10      CX,CY:  -8/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  50            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  606  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR):           34.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.    1.    1.    1.    2.    2.    2.    1.    1.    0.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -3.   -3.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.    2.    3.    3.    4.    4.    3.    2.   -0.   -2.   -4.   -7.   -9.  -11.  -13.  -14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.    1.    1.    2.    3.    4.    5.    5.    5.    5.    6.    6.    5.    4.    2.    0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.   -0.    0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -2.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -5.   -5.   -5.   -5.   -4.   -3.   -3.   -3.
  PERSISTENCE            1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.    0.    1.    2.    3.    4.    5.    6.    5.    5.    4.    4.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -3.   -4.   -6.   -7.   -8.   -9.  -10.  -10.  -10.  -10.  -11.  -12.
  700-500 MB RH          0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.    1.    1.    2.    2.    2.    2.   -1.   -1.   -3.   -3.   -5.   -7.   -9.  -10.  -10.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.    0.    0.    1.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    0.    0.    0.   -0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    0.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.    1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    2.    1.    1.    0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -0.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -1.   -0.    1.    3.
  RI POTENTIAL           1.    2.    3.    5.    8.    7.    3.    0.   -1.   -3.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -4.   -4.
                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.    8.   12.   15.   17.   13.    9.    0.   -5.  -11.  -14.  -19.  -26.  -31.  -35.  -38.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   55. LAT, LON:   17.8   112.3

      ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032024 CARLOTTA   08/02/24  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor                  Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)         :   94.2     36.9  to  148.5        0.51           7.3
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT)      :    5.0    -22.0  to   44.0        0.41           6.2
 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT)      :   17.7     34.9  to    8.5        0.65           7.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2)      :  207.2    800.8  to  -82.5        0.67          -8.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)             :   50.0    -33.0  to  170.5        0.41           4.2
 MAXIMUM WIND (KT)           :   55.0     22.5  to  132.0        0.93           7.7
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP       :    7.4     37.8  to    2.1        0.85           6.1
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2)       :   12.2      2.7  to  107.8        0.09           0.5
 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear :   20.7     58.2  to    0.0        0.64           1.5
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP        :    1.0      2.2  to   -2.3        0.26          -0.2
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  15% is   2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  51% is   4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  32% is   3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  15% is   3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  24% is   3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  16% is   2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    15.2%   50.7%   32.0%   20.8%   14.5%   24.5%   16.4%    0.0%
    Logistic:     8.2%   14.8%    7.5%    3.0%    1.5%    0.8%    0.1%    0.1%
    Bayesian:     0.7%    0.4%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     8.0%   22.0%   13.2%    8.0%    5.4%    8.5%    5.5%    0.0%
       DTOPS:    15.0%   45.0%   28.0%   18.0%   12.0%   20.0%   10.0%    0.0%
       SDCON:    11.5%   33.5%   20.6%   13.0%    8.7%   14.2%    7.7%      0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032024 CARLOTTA   08/02/24  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##