* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DANIEL EP042024 08/03/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 37 39 43 47 48 47 45 41 38 35 36 37 41
V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 37 39 43 47 48 47 45 41 38 35 36 37 41
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 45 46 45 41 35 30 25 21 18 17
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 17 15 9 9 18 29 36 37 41 43 44 28 16 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -3 -4 0 6 5 0 -2 -2 -8 1 5 6 0 0
SHEAR DIR 52 36 44 43 44 44 80 82 88 88 74 62 58 56 55 66 81
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.4 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 147 149 152 152 151 150 148 150 155 155 155 147 147
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 47 44 46 48 49 53 55 55 56 60 62 60 59 64 65 63 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 27 31 20 33 35 20 -25 -15 -4 -5 2 15 -49 -89 -108
200 MB DIV 50 44 37 44 46 30 30 4 56 88 85 73 60 76 52 16 -3
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 9 10 5 -2 -10 -6 -3 0
LAND (KM) 2297 2326 2349 2356 2356 2287 2172 2017 1962 1994 2008 1943 1763 1510 1305 1229 1252
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.8 12.7 12.6 11.9 10.9 9.9 9.9 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 129.9 130.3 130.6 130.8 130.8 130.1 128.4 126.3 124.8 124.0 123.1 122.2 121.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 1 6 10 9 6 7 5 6 10 12 8 6 9
HEAT CONTENT 14 14 13 13 13 13 17 16 20 25 32 32 31 32 29 18 18
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 35. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. -30. -36. -38. -35. -32. -27.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 13. 12. 10. 6. 3. -0. 1. 2. 6.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 129.9
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042024 DANIEL 08/03/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 5.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.48 2.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -4.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.39 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.77 -0.3
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 16.6% 12.8% 10.9% 8.6% 16.7% 15.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.1% 5.9% 4.5% 3.6% 2.9% 5.6% 5.1% 0.5%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
SDCON: 2.0% 3.9% 2.7% 2.3% 1.4% 2.8% 3.0% .7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042024 DANIEL 08/03/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##