* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DEBBY AL042024 08/05/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 72 74 73 73 72 71 66 59 50 46 41 38 32 31
V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 50 40 31 29 31 30 24 17 15 22 25 26 27 25
V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 51 40 31 28 35 38 40 41 35 30 28 27 30 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 11 14 20 10 11 16 9 2 11 8 12 19 16 16 22 37 59
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -1 -1 0 -1 6 4 1 3 -4 1 -6 -3 -2 0 6
SHEAR DIR 266 278 276 273 255 289 221 55 125 42 56 11 336 339 257 241 225
SST (C) 31.3 31.6 31.4 31.3 30.6 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.6 29.1 23.1 24.1
POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 170 169 161 156 151 151 149 145 143 140 144 153 93 100
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 8 6 9 6 10 7 9 7 7 4 5 2 3
700-500 MB RH 63 57 56 57 56 53 59 59 56 58 66 73 77 77 66 59 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 25 25 22 23 24 24 22 21 19 17 16 14 12 15
850 MB ENV VOR 29 4 -3 13 4 -17 30 51 89 70 53 7 23 1 0 -16 25
200 MB DIV 80 78 58 42 71 27 32 21 49 17 77 30 78 81 45 61 85
700-850 TADV 8 6 8 6 2 2 8 8 4 2 -1 -6 5 -3 2 4 -24
LAND (KM) 117 69 2 -70 -131 -74 -5 73 59 31 15 -14 -83 -83 -86 32 74
LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.1 29.9 30.5 31.0 31.6 31.8 31.7 32.1 32.5 32.8 33.5 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 84.0 83.8 83.7 83.3 82.9 82.1 81.1 80.2 79.9 79.7 79.5 79.2 78.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 5 6 6 9 13 14
HEAT CONTENT 56 79 55 7 6 6 30 23 22 19 17 19 8 3 4 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -17. -20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 12. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. 6. -1. -10. -14. -19. -22. -28. -29.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.2 84.0
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 5.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 4.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 4.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 2.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.44 1.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.67 1.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.94 -0.2
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 50.1% 34.1% 22.8% 16.7% 23.6% 15.2% 19.8%
Logistic: 16.2% 35.7% 25.5% 16.6% 5.3% 9.2% 3.5% 0.5%
Bayesian: 9.0% 3.2% 2.1% 6.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 13.7% 29.7% 20.6% 15.3% 7.5% 11.0% 6.3% 6.8%
DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 9.3% 14.8% 10.3% 7.6% 3.7% 5.5% 3.1% 3.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/2024 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 50 40 31 29 31 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 60 59 64 44 34 25 23 25 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 60 57 56 36 26 17 15 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 40 31 29 31 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT