* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DANIEL EP042024 08/05/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 39 41 40 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 39 41 40 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 37 35 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 4 9 6 9 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 0 -3 2 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 7 12 46 146 155 199 219 199 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.3 25.8 24.7 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 139 137 134 125 121 110 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 58 60 58 48 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 52 48 42 42 47 52 46 46 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 3 -10 -5 10 -5 -1 -12 -12 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 1 -2 4 1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 2214 2098 1981 1877 1773 1650 1634 1748 1942 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.9 19.2 19.8 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 130.3 129.6 128.8 128.1 127.3 127.0 128.0 129.8 132.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 8 7 8 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 10 9 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 130.3
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042024 DANIEL 08/05/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.61 5.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.74 4.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 19.0% 13.9% 11.0% 8.5% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.7% 6.4% 4.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.6% 8.5% 6.0% 4.1% 3.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 2.3% 4.7% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 3.0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042024 DANIEL 08/05/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##