* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DEBBY AL042024 08/05/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 50 51 53 55 58 59 58 50 43 39 38 30 20 20
V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 32 30 36 37 40 42 33 29 27 28 30 22 N/A 17
V (KT) LGEM 50 40 34 31 30 35 37 41 43 34 29 27 28 32 31 28 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 10 12 20 16 5 8 8 4 6 11 10 13 19 45 65 65 64
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -1 1 0 4 0 2 -3 -3 -1 9 5 8 0 0
SHEAR DIR 266 249 271 296 258 301 112 209 357 318 334 299 213 229 208 209 206
SST (C) 31.1 29.9 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.4 29.5 25.4 24.2 23.6 19.9 17.5
POT. INT. (KT) 170 167 158 159 158 149 148 147 144 147 141 160 109 98 96 82 77
200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -49.2 -48.6 -49.5 -50.6
200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 1.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 5 9 6 10 7 9 6 7 4 5 1 3 1 2
700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 54 60 58 60 58 63 65 75 72 64 59 53 54 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 23 18 15 13 16 16 12 11
850 MB ENV VOR 24 9 -21 -17 25 25 103 77 74 12 34 44 117 123 131 128 103
200 MB DIV 80 114 61 8 6 4 42 20 52 57 46 74 52 65 59 83 52
700-850 TADV 5 1 2 2 9 5 10 -1 -2 8 -4 -14 -20 -40 10 37 2
LAND (KM) -68 -98 -55 -31 -7 62 79 64 14 -44 -131 -127 -49 17 44 76 -1
LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.9 31.4 31.6 31.7 31.9 32.1 32.5 33.3 34.0 35.0 36.4 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 83.1 82.6 82.0 81.6 81.2 80.1 79.5 79.1 79.0 79.2 79.0 78.0 75.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 6 10 11 8 12 19 23
HEAT CONTENT 15 4 13 31 29 19 22 20 17 19 4 5 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 5. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -4. -4.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. -16. -22. -25. -21. -20. -25. -26.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. -0. -7. -11. -12. -20. -30. -30.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 30.3 83.1
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 1.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.53 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.77 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.4% 9.4% 7.0% 5.8% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.9% 6.2% 4.6% 2.1% 0.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.4% 7.2% 4.7% 3.2% 2.1% 4.3% 0.2% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .7% 3.6% 2.3% 1.6% 1.0% 2.1% .1% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/05/2024 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 40 34 32 30 36 37 40 42 33 29 27 28 30 22 DIS DIS
18HR AGO 50 49 43 41 39 45 46 49 51 42 38 36 37 39 31 DIS DIS
12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 42 48 49 52 54 45 41 39 40 42 34 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 44 45 48 50 41 37 35 36 38 30 DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT