* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DEBBY AL042024 08/06/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 38 39 41 41 44 41 39 38 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 38 39 41 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 39 31 28 27 28 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 3 5 5 7 3 4 10 5 18 39 63 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 1 3 0 3 -3 0 1 4 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 267 283 339 39 109 114 18 299 271 209 201 215 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.4 25.6 16.8 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 150 149 148 148 153 151 154 161 113 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.3 -49.3 -48.2 -48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 10 7 10 6 6 3 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 57 58 57 61 66 64 51 53 56 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 23 22 22 21 20 17 16 18 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 39 69 87 71 75 36 65 86 86 123 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 17 7 -5 6 26 20 36 64 86 85 93 85 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 5 5 3 3 1 -3 2 6 -4 -42 -19 -15 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 2 36 65 60 55 1 -74 -168 -223 -166 -107 -55 -124 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.1 32.1 32.3 32.4 32.9 33.7 34.9 36.7 38.9 41.6 44.0 46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 80.9 80.3 79.8 79.6 79.4 79.6 79.9 80.0 79.1 77.0 73.8 70.6 67.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 3 2 2 3 5 8 12 16 17 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 23 19 20 19 20 19 13 4 4 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 9. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -11. -15. -13. -13. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 9. 6. 4. 3. 1. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.0 80.9
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 17.8% 11.9% 9.0% 6.3% 12.6% 13.1% 23.5%
Logistic: 2.4% 13.2% 9.5% 1.6% 0.3% 3.0% 2.4% 1.7%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.4% 10.4% 7.1% 3.6% 2.2% 5.2% 5.2% 8.4%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 1.2% 5.7% 3.5% 1.8% 1.1% 2.6% 2.6% 4.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042024 DEBBY 08/06/2024 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 38 39 41 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 35 34 34 36 37 39 30 26 25 26 27 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 36 27 23 22 23 24 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT