* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EMILIA EP052024 08/07/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 52 47 41 37 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 52 47 41 37 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 48 43 36 30 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 10 7 7 7 1 4 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 37 14 35 46 40 35 55 348 322 293 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.3 26.6 26.4 25.8 24.8 23.7 22.9 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 130 123 112 100 91 87 87 88 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 72 71 65 68 64 59 58 54 53 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 44 51 50 66 74 51 49 37 27 21 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 22 7 2 23 37 30 -7 9 -5 -11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -9 -4 -8 -7 -1 1 0 7 5 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 857 883 941 998 1070 1214 1379 1540 1627 1693 1746 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.5 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.5 119.9 121.4 122.8 125.2 127.4 129.4 131.6 133.1 134.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 15 CX,CY: -5/ 14
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -18. -21. -24. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.6 117.0
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/07/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.32 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.42 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.2 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.1% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 1.5% 3.1% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/07/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##