* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EMILIA EP052024 08/08/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 30 25 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 6 8 9 12 13 15 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 3 4 4 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 36 50 67 61 62 150 255 257 255 261 233 227 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.5 24.3 23.6 23.4 23.2 22.6 22.2 22.4 22.2 22.5 22.6 22.9 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 99 97 95 88 83 85 82 85 86 89 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 53 54 51 51 48 46 41 39 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 19 18 17 14 13 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 70 69 56 48 41 33 25 25 13 9 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 0 24 33 20 32 5 16 -17 -10 10 0 -10 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 0 3 6 2 6 4 7 3 5 3 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1077 1137 1208 1280 1359 1501 1541 1621 1716 1810 1911 1778 1633 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.5 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 122.7 124.0 125.2 126.3 127.4 129.5 131.2 133.0 134.6 136.0 137.2 138.5 139.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 360 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -18. -25. -30. -36. -42. -47. -52. -56. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.1 122.7
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/08/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.26 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.67 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 0% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/08/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##