* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EMILIA EP052024 08/08/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 27 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 5 8 9 10 11 14 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 -2 4 4 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 70 89 78 72 106 189 256 262 268 248 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.4 23.8 23.4 23.3 22.9 22.5 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.7 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 108 101 97 95 91 87 83 84 84 88 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 56 54 51 49 47 44 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 15 15 13 11 10 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 60 48 41 34 29 22 13 19 4 4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 29 35 24 34 11 0 6 -23 0 -12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 2 5 3 4 10 4 10 9 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1116 1177 1247 1319 1396 1487 1561 1656 1761 1900 1770 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.9 24.5 24.8 24.9 24.7 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.7 125.8 126.9 127.9 129.9 131.9 133.6 135.1 136.7 138.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -20. -27. -33. -40. -44. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.4 123.5
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052024 EMILIA 08/08/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.24 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.66 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 0% 1.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052024 EMILIA 08/08/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##