* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ERNESTO AL052024 08/18/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 59 60 59 58 52 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 60 58 59 60 59 58 52 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 60 57 56 56 57 57 51 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 12 13 17 20 24 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 2 5 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 276 268 264 235 226 236 250 263 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 25.3 20.5 14.6 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 139 137 132 112 86 75 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.8 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 43 46 52 54 57 62 62 66 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 31 32 31 30 29 25 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 34 23 0 -31 -32 -16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 4 -17 10 45 37 60 41 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 8 4 6 12 22 24 46 36 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1068 1010 958 829 711 491 215 470 1168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.4 35.2 36.6 37.9 41.1 44.7 47.7 50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 63.6 63.1 62.7 62.1 61.5 59.0 54.0 46.4 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 14 16 22 28 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 20 26 26 23 23 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.5 63.6
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/18/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.49 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.25 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.85 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.3% 9.5% 7.8% 7.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.9% 5.8% 3.8% 2.9% 2.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 1.4% 5.4% 3.9% 1.9% 1.7% 2.9% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/18/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/18/2024 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 59 60 59 58 52 43 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 60 59 60 61 60 59 53 44 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 56 55 49 40 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 48 42 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT