* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ERNESTO AL052024 08/18/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 60 60 60 56 49 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 60 59 60 60 60 56 49 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 58 58 56 48 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 9 15 19 22 29 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 4 4 6 9 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 274 249 219 233 233 231 260 271 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.5 22.9 18.6 19.4 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 133 134 96 81 84 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -49.8 -50.4 -50.5 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 45 50 53 56 58 60 63 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 33 31 32 30 29 24 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 37 34 28 0 -22 -45 -28 -11 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -16 11 40 36 27 68 49 47 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 9 4 10 22 22 35 20 46 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1026 954 853 726 623 434 223 837 1465 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.3 36.3 37.9 39.4 42.9 46.1 48.9 51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 63.1 62.6 62.2 61.2 60.3 56.5 50.2 41.5 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 14 17 20 25 30 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 25 25 23 24 22 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -14. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. -0. 0. -4. -11. -21. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 34.2 63.1
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/18/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.49 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.25 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.5% 10.4% 8.4% 7.3% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 2.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.3% 6.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 1.6% 5.0% 3.5% 2.0% 1.7% 2.4% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/18/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/18/2024 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 60 60 60 56 49 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 60 56 49 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 56 52 45 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 46 39 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT