* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ERNESTO AL052024 08/18/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 66 64 55 45 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 66 64 55 45 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 67 63 53 42 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 10 13 16 16 16 21 29 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 10 8 8 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 238 242 238 245 230 255 271 277 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 25.3 22.6 18.3 19.2 15.0 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 112 95 81 84 77 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.5 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 50 54 57 59 59 64 69 62 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 29 29 30 27 24 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 28 0 -19 -35 -46 -28 -8 33 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 36 31 30 49 53 45 45 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 11 15 16 18 42 14 36 12 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 829 708 610 510 434 188 834 1371 526 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.8 39.2 40.9 42.6 46.1 49.2 51.1 52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 62.7 61.9 61.0 59.1 57.1 50.7 41.6 30.1 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 19 22 26 32 36 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 23 29 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -10. -18. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -10. -20. -29. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.4 62.7
** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052024 ERNESTO 08/18/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.50 1.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.45 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.13 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 15.9% 10.9% 8.9% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.2% 4.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.8% 6.8% 4.4% 3.1% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 3.4% 4.4% 3.2% 2.0% 1.2% .1% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052024 ERNESTO 08/18/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052024 ERNESTO 08/18/2024 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 67 66 64 55 45 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 65 64 64 63 61 52 42 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 58 49 39 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 44 34 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT