* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GILMA EP072024 08/19/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 57 62 67 70 77 73 72 67 62 58 55 53 52
V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 57 62 67 70 77 73 72 67 62 58 55 53 52
V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 57 59 61 62 61 58 54 50 47 45 42 38 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 21 18 16 15 15 13 9 4 3 1 1 5 8 8 10 8 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 4 3 1 3 5 5 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 68 73 46 17 7 61 16 48 53 221 230 233 290 254 265 262 279
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.1 26.2 25.9 25.1 24.5 24.1 24.4 24.1
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 151 152 142 136 131 123 124 120 112 107 103 107 104
200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3
700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 77 77 75 75 78 77 74 68 62 57 51 48 42 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 23 26 28 30 34 32 32 30 30 29 27 25 21
850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 72 68 71 67 38 23 9 11 19 45 50 61 52 42 20
200 MB DIV 72 96 65 64 94 68 22 14 26 26 28 32 17 10 -34 -21 -23
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -11 -12 -13 -5 -6 -1 -7 0 1 1 2 6 10 9 -3
LAND (KM) 1112 1163 1220 1256 1279 1358 1425 1456 1504 1551 1600 1649 1701 1778 1885 1981 1848
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.5 118.4 119.2 120.0 121.8 123.1 124.1 125.2 126.3 127.5 128.5 129.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 7 9 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 24 21 20 22 26 25 8 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 21. 18. 18. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 27. 23. 22. 17. 12. 8. 5. 4. 2.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 116.5
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/19/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.59 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.25 1.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 3.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.6 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 -0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 17.6% 14.2% 12.1% 9.8% 20.0% 16.8% 10.2%
Logistic: 0.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.3% 6.6% 4.9% 4.1% 3.3% 6.7% 5.7% 3.4%
DTOPS: 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 6.0% 6.0% 2.0%
SDCON: 4.1% 7.3% 5.4% 4.0% 3.1% 6.3% 5.8% 2.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/19/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##