* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/22/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 41 42 45 46 49 46 42 40 39 39 38 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 41 42 45 46 49 46 42 40 39 39 38 37 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 40 41 42 42 42 41 38 36 35 34 34 32 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 11 13 11 8 14 8 14 16 19 22 30 34 34 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -4 -3 -3 -6 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 21 12 3 356 4 3 343 321 311 303 281 282 271 273 275 279 287 SST (C) 27.4 26.8 27.0 27.3 26.9 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 134 138 134 136 132 130 128 131 134 136 138 138 135 139 141 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 59 61 57 56 55 54 51 45 42 40 40 39 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 18 19 20 17 18 16 13 12 11 10 10 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 24 26 26 23 16 30 21 22 4 12 9 21 20 19 15 4 -10 200 MB DIV 36 48 38 11 -9 30 26 30 13 11 30 21 -9 -37 -14 -23 -25 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -5 -1 -1 0 5 6 7 3 0 2 -4 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1460 1337 1215 1090 966 714 473 292 215 265 352 389 403 472 552 696 913 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.8 144.0 145.2 146.4 149.0 151.5 153.9 155.9 157.5 158.9 160.5 162.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 9 7 8 9 8 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 3 5 2 7 12 6 9 16 15 17 13 10 9 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 11. 14. 11. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 141.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/22/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.57 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.82 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 18.3% 14.0% 11.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 7.3% 2.2% 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.6% 5.4% 4.2% 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0% SDCON: 2.4% 6.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/22/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##