* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/23/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 46 46 45 40 39 37 33 32 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 46 46 45 40 39 37 33 32 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 44 44 44 42 41 40 38 36 33 30 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 12 10 10 9 9 12 16 18 21 28 30 29 27 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -6 -5 -6 -4 -4 -6 -4 -1 2 0 3 1 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 352 347 350 354 336 342 336 325 302 288 246 246 254 267 274 274 277 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 133 133 134 130 130 127 132 134 134 137 137 137 134 137 138 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 60 60 58 59 54 53 50 49 46 48 46 45 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 18 17 15 13 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 20 14 6 2 14 11 16 3 11 13 29 16 14 5 1 -5 0 200 MB DIV 27 3 12 21 12 29 23 10 6 21 15 -2 -14 -8 -32 -29 -31 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -2 -1 -2 2 2 5 4 3 -2 -2 -5 -3 -3 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1201 1081 961 816 673 428 264 168 221 327 332 318 346 458 594 723 832 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.1 145.3 146.4 147.8 149.2 151.7 153.9 156.2 157.6 158.9 160.2 161.5 162.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 13 11 11 9 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 2 3 4 9 5 8 13 18 13 14 11 10 9 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 0. -1. -3. -7. -8. -11. -11. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 144.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/23/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.51 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.77 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 20.0% 15.8% 13.1% 10.4% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.2% 5.4% 4.4% 3.5% 7.2% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 11.0% SDCON: 2.8% 6.6% 4.7% 3.7% 2.7% 5.1% 2.1% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/23/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##