* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GILMA EP072024 08/23/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 92 87 83 76 67 58 51 44 35 31 29 30 31 32 31
V (KT) LAND 100 96 92 87 83 76 67 58 51 44 35 31 29 30 31 32 31
V (KT) LGEM 100 95 88 81 75 66 57 49 42 35 29 24 21 20 19 18 17
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 3 1 4 7 11 17 20 24 20 19 16 24 28 33
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 4 5 2 3 2 3 3 0 0 -1 0 0 6 -1
SHEAR DIR 134 158 167 204 16 88 247 239 264 266 275 271 275 237 243 250 265
SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.6 25.7 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 129 128 122 119 120 114 117 117 114 116 118 121 125 131
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -53.3 -54.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 63 58 59 54 52 50 46 43 40 39 39 37 38 39 48 45 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 20 20 21 20 18 18 16 13 11 9 9 9 9 8
850 MB ENV VOR 34 43 55 63 63 72 59 52 37 31 26 22 13 6 11 8 -5
200 MB DIV -23 -11 -11 26 41 5 -24 -18 -12 -32 -50 -21 -9 16 16 13 10
700-850 TADV 4 6 6 3 1 6 9 9 8 9 5 8 2 8 7 5 7
LAND (KM) 1649 1696 1743 1791 1843 1958 2098 2076 1864 1611 1338 1057 810 555 368 263 271
LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.2 127.9 128.8 129.6 131.2 133.0 135.0 137.0 139.4 142.0 144.7 147.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -13. -20. -27. -33. -39. -43. -47. -49. -52. -53. -55. -57.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -15. -16. -17. -16. -14. -12. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -24. -33. -42. -49. -56. -65. -69. -71. -70. -69. -68. -69.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.3 126.4
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/23/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.53 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 584.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.6% 3.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 1.8% 7.4% 2.2% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/23/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##