* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/23/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 41 39 36 33 31 28 25 21 20 20 21 22 23 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 41 39 36 33 31 28 25 21 20 20 21 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 39 37 36 35 35 33 32 30 29 28 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 15 10 12 19 28 31 33 37 32 29 27 35 32 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -9 -7 -3 -4 -8 -9 -5 -4 -6 -1 0 -4 -6 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 341 337 322 333 334 292 298 287 286 265 265 267 270 269 278 279 294 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.6 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 130 130 129 127 130 136 139 142 141 141 141 143 148 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 56 55 56 51 52 47 47 46 46 47 47 50 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 17 15 13 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 13 9 8 12 -7 10 10 17 12 15 7 -6 -17 -14 -16 200 MB DIV 5 0 -1 8 24 18 12 5 10 5 -6 -26 -15 -19 -12 0 -14 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 3 3 2 0 -4 -3 -6 -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 885 734 586 448 320 138 176 300 281 341 462 607 764 949 1148 1354 1553 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.0 148.5 149.9 151.3 152.7 155.1 157.3 159.2 161.1 162.9 164.4 165.9 167.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 8 9 3 7 17 14 13 13 17 17 15 23 26 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 12. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -20. -20. -19. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.6 147.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/23/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.46 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.75 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.73 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 13.7% 11.1% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.3% 4.6% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% SDCON: .5% 6.6% 4.3% 3.3% 1.9% 3.5% 2.5% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/23/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##