* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HONE CP012024 08/24/24 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 45 44 40 39 36 32 28 26 25 24 25 25 24
V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 45 44 40 39 36 32 28 26 25 24 25 25 24
V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 47 45 44 44 44 42 40 38 36 35 34 33 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 12 12 17 19 25 23 25 27 27 26 30 30 34 34
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -8 -8 -5 -3 -8 -9 -7 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 2
SHEAR DIR 338 320 330 326 319 310 304 295 270 253 263 271 263 262 276 290 299
SST (C) 26.2 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 130 129 129 127 135 137 139 140 139 142 140 144 148 148 149
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 55 56 52 50 49 46 45 46 47 48 50 51 53 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 13 10 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 6 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 7 3 0 3 1 13 8 8 1 9 3 -5 -19 -17 -24
200 MB DIV 4 0 8 10 17 7 5 7 15 -5 -21 -21 9 -15 5 -20 -6
700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -1 2 1 2 -2 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 -3 -4
LAND (KM) 720 584 451 331 231 132 266 344 354 450 552 690 852 1009 1169 1354 1549
LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 148.6 149.9 151.2 152.5 153.8 156.3 158.3 160.4 162.2 163.8 165.1 166.6 168.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 8 8 8 8 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 0 3 8 9 5 4 15 15 13 12 14 18 14 17 26 31 27
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -21.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 148.6
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/24/24 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.42 3.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.75 4.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -4.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.73 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 19.3% 15.2% 12.7% 10.0% 19.5% 0.0% 10.1%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.7% 6.7% 5.1% 4.3% 3.4% 6.5% 0.0% 3.4%
DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 10.0% 8.0% 3.0%
SDCON: 2.8% 5.8% 4.0% 3.6% 2.7% 8.2% 4.0% 3.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/24/24 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##