* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/24/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 53 53 50 48 46 43 38 35 33 32 31 31 30 30 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 53 53 50 48 46 43 38 35 33 32 31 31 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 55 54 52 51 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 12 11 15 20 25 23 29 28 29 30 35 35 35 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -5 -7 -6 -4 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 5 6 SHEAR DIR 320 318 310 300 296 306 292 296 273 273 269 270 269 280 286 296 306 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.6 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 127 130 136 139 139 140 142 140 144 149 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 55 53 49 49 45 44 45 46 49 50 52 55 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 1 1 6 -5 17 21 16 7 4 6 11 -1 -9 -20 -20 200 MB DIV 20 24 23 26 14 3 12 23 10 -24 -29 -7 -3 -1 -16 -28 -22 700-850 TADV -6 -5 0 3 3 1 1 1 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 576 439 312 213 124 182 343 348 423 543 660 811 978 1200 1446 1662 1830 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.9 151.3 152.7 154.0 155.2 157.3 159.5 161.5 163.3 164.9 166.3 167.9 169.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 11 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 7 9 4 3 7 15 15 11 13 18 15 16 27 29 30 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 3. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.2 149.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/24/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.37 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.72 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 23.5% 18.6% 15.9% 12.5% 23.4% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.1% 1.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 9.2% 6.7% 5.6% 4.6% 8.0% 5.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 12.0% 8.0% 7.0% 5.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.0% 10.6% 7.3% 6.3% 4.8% 8.0% 3.9% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/24/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##