* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HONE CP012024 08/24/24 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 56 54 52 49 46 43 39 36 35 35 33 33 32 30
V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 56 54 52 49 46 43 39 36 35 35 33 33 32 30
V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 58 57 55 53 51 49 46 43 41 40 37 35 32 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 13 14 15 24 24 25 29 33 32 32 29 37 28 31
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -3 -4 -6 -5 -4 -2 1 -3 -2 -1 4 5 0 2 5
SHEAR DIR 317 313 308 310 310 287 290 283 274 275 279 270 266 273 287 301 301
SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 124 125 126 132 135 139 139 141 143 145 147 147 150 148 148
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 53 51 48 48 46 43 43 46 48 51 54 56 57 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 8 8 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 0 2 -1 6 20 12 15 -1 5 7 4 -12 -14 -16 -7
200 MB DIV 27 26 24 27 10 2 9 9 14 -14 -17 6 0 13 -16 -5 -7
700-850 TADV -6 -1 2 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 -2 -2 -7
LAND (KM) 436 320 222 148 119 256 343 352 450 604 770 964 1174 1380 1582 1743 1868
LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 151.3 152.6 153.8 154.9 156.0 158.2 160.2 162.0 163.8 165.6 167.4 169.4 171.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 2 1 4 16 18 14 10 14 19 17 23 28 32 38 43
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -20. -22. -22. -23. -25.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.4 151.3
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/24/24 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.30 2.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 4.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 -3.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.69 1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 -0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 23.3% 18.7% 16.1% 12.6% 21.8% 14.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.8% 3.5% 1.6% 0.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.3% 8.9% 6.8% 5.6% 4.7% 7.4% 5.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 6.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 5.6% 8.4% 5.9% 5.3% 4.3% 4.7% 3.0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/24/24 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##