* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/24/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 54 51 49 45 42 36 33 30 28 27 26 25 24 22 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 54 51 49 45 42 36 33 30 28 27 26 25 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 55 54 53 50 49 46 44 41 39 37 35 34 32 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 15 13 18 23 24 30 34 34 34 35 36 36 35 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 4 1 5 SHEAR DIR 315 308 314 312 303 275 280 281 281 276 278 276 275 282 284 288 305 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 126 128 133 139 139 138 142 141 145 148 147 151 149 151 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 50 49 47 44 42 42 43 45 47 49 51 54 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 16 15 12 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 -3 -4 -1 14 13 19 7 0 5 5 -3 -7 -17 -17 -10 200 MB DIV 13 21 19 4 -9 6 8 5 -13 -16 -12 -10 -14 -4 -21 -34 -21 700-850 TADV -2 3 3 3 2 0 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 312 220 139 98 153 310 330 407 543 690 829 966 1109 1337 1622 1851 1991 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.7 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.6 153.8 154.9 156.0 157.1 159.2 161.3 163.1 164.9 166.6 168.1 169.5 170.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 8 12 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 3 4 19 16 11 11 20 15 17 22 27 32 40 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -19. -22. -25. -27. -28. -29. -30. -31. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.6 152.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/24/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.30 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.63 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 22.2% 17.1% 14.4% 11.2% 19.3% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.8% 5.9% 4.9% 3.9% 6.5% 4.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.2% 4.9% 3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 3.2% 2.7% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/24/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##