* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/25/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 50 48 47 44 41 36 32 29 26 25 24 24 23 23 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 50 48 47 44 41 36 32 29 26 25 24 24 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 50 49 47 46 44 43 40 38 36 34 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 16 20 25 27 29 34 37 37 40 37 42 31 29 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -6 -7 -3 -6 -4 -6 -3 -3 -1 0 -4 4 6 -2 SHEAR DIR 304 302 310 298 287 281 290 289 278 278 276 278 281 290 303 297 317 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 128 133 137 139 138 142 142 145 147 144 145 149 150 151 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 47 47 44 40 40 41 45 48 50 52 57 58 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 12 11 10 11 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -8 -8 -2 2 13 6 11 3 0 3 2 -11 -13 -17 -20 -6 200 MB DIV 12 12 -5 -12 0 5 2 -10 -9 -19 6 -20 13 -11 -1 -27 11 700-850 TADV 4 4 3 0 1 -1 1 -3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 204 118 83 152 259 323 386 520 676 823 960 1115 1287 1482 1679 1873 2044 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.6 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.8 155.0 156.1 157.2 158.3 160.6 162.7 164.6 166.3 167.9 169.4 171.0 172.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 3 5 17 16 12 11 19 18 17 22 27 26 27 39 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. -30. -31. -31. -32. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.9 153.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/25/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.32 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.60 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 -3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 18.8% 14.9% 12.5% 9.9% 16.4% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.3% 5.0% 4.2% 3.3% 5.5% 3.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 4.1% 3.5% 3.1% 2.1% 2.7% 1.9% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/25/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##