* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/25/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 63 62 57 52 46 41 36 34 31 29 26 26 25 24 V (KT) LAND 65 66 65 63 62 57 52 46 41 36 34 31 29 26 26 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 67 66 62 59 54 51 48 45 42 39 36 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 17 20 25 25 27 31 32 33 38 41 41 33 33 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -5 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 2 0 -2 1 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 300 309 293 282 269 278 286 279 277 272 265 278 284 301 301 315 329 SST (C) 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.9 26.9 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 128 133 133 139 139 140 142 142 148 146 144 147 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 46 45 44 41 40 44 47 48 53 54 56 56 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 4 7 16 11 13 7 3 1 5 0 -8 -17 -12 -2 16 200 MB DIV 15 14 -7 -6 8 0 3 -22 -26 -2 -14 -16 15 -23 -35 -31 -19 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 4 3 1 -1 -1 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 -6 -6 -10 -4 LAND (KM) 129 70 138 248 294 328 431 585 733 883 1028 1198 1379 1566 1746 1940 2126 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.8 156.0 157.1 158.2 159.3 161.5 163.4 165.3 167.0 168.6 170.1 171.8 173.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 5 17 17 15 10 13 20 15 19 24 30 25 32 45 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -17. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -3. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -31. -34. -36. -39. -39. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.1 154.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/25/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.24 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 496.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 -2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.70 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 21.1% 17.9% 15.7% 12.6% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 7.6% 6.3% 5.4% 4.6% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.3% 4.3% 3.6% 3.7% 3.3% 3.1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/25/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##