* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/25/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 77 76 73 66 58 52 45 41 38 35 32 30 30 32 33 V (KT) LAND 75 78 77 76 73 66 58 52 45 41 38 35 32 30 30 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 81 80 78 71 63 57 52 47 43 39 36 34 30 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 20 23 24 26 32 32 29 33 36 40 35 28 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 0 1 -2 -3 6 7 6 6 SHEAR DIR 303 299 292 267 275 281 290 281 278 271 273 287 296 305 321 338 345 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.6 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 131 133 135 139 140 144 142 147 147 146 148 149 152 152 150 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 46 46 43 41 41 45 48 49 52 52 53 53 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 12 13 13 13 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 6 12 13 10 7 6 5 -3 0 -2 -7 -10 -2 10 19 200 MB DIV 22 -1 -2 3 2 0 -11 -22 -28 -9 -22 6 -3 -19 -28 -9 -19 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 2 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -5 -12 -4 -10 LAND (KM) 91 123 212 301 321 373 544 728 879 1030 1193 1364 1521 1723 1949 2182 2397 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.0 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.7 156.8 157.8 159.0 160.1 162.2 164.6 166.8 168.4 170.0 171.7 173.4 174.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 12 19 15 13 11 21 18 19 24 30 28 34 48 48 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. 1. -2. -9. -17. -23. -30. -34. -37. -40. -43. -45. -45. -43. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.1 155.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/25/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.16 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.48 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 555.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.28 -2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.84 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.9% 21.0% 18.6% 16.4% 13.1% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.0% 7.4% 6.4% 5.6% 4.7% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.5% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3% 2.8% 3.1% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/25/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##