* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/26/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 56 52 49 45 42 38 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 56 52 49 45 42 38 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 58 55 52 48 45 41 38 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 25 30 32 32 35 36 37 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -5 -5 0 -2 1 0 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 270 278 284 293 291 276 271 268 267 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.5 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 136 139 140 139 144 146 148 147 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 43 41 40 38 40 44 49 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 16 10 9 12 10 8 9 10 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 16 7 -13 -3 -10 -28 -18 12 6 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 1 -3 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 215 263 276 301 364 544 740 949 1186 1407 1598 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.9 159.0 160.2 161.4 162.5 164.8 167.0 169.2 171.6 173.8 175.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 17 14 15 12 11 20 16 23 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -27. -31. -34. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.9 157.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/26/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.31 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.17 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 536.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.80 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 10.5% 10.0% 8.5% 6.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/26/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##