* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HONE CP012024 08/26/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 50 46 43 40 38 35 31 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 60 54 50 46 43 40 38 35 31 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 60 56 52 49 47 42 39 36 34 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 19 26 29 33 34 32 36 36 35 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -5 -4 -1 -2 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 268 273 279 285 287 279 265 269 266 272 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.8 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 139 140 140 143 143 149 146 148 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 46 44 42 40 39 38 41 47 49 54 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 14 17 9 6 10 9 14 8 4 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 19 4 -12 -6 5 -20 -22 4 12 -5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 255 282 292 339 417 633 847 1083 1283 1517 1773 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 159.1 160.1 161.1 162.3 163.4 165.9 168.2 170.6 172.6 174.9 177.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 17 14 15 12 10 16 16 21 26 27 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -25. -29. -31. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.2 159.1
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/26/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.36 2.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.05 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 515.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 -1.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 3.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.79 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.12 -0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.0% 7.6% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.7% 4.3% 2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .8% 2.1% 1.2% .9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/26/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##