* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/26/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 45 42 39 38 36 33 30 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 45 42 39 38 36 33 30 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 48 45 43 39 37 35 33 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 30 33 33 34 35 37 34 37 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 282 286 285 283 267 269 268 268 269 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 139 140 144 145 147 145 148 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 38 37 36 38 43 48 53 57 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 12 9 16 11 9 10 5 2 -8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -19 -12 1 -18 -22 -10 19 0 17 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 277 298 355 444 547 773 995 1234 1435 1639 1863 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.4 161.5 162.6 163.8 165.0 167.4 169.7 172.1 174.1 176.1 178.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 10 9 10 18 15 23 28 32 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -22. -25. -29. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.3 160.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/26/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 509.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .4% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/26/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##