* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/26/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 45 42 39 35 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 45 42 39 35 30 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 46 43 40 37 34 31 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 29 30 30 33 34 36 33 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 283 289 288 281 265 270 272 275 284 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 138 142 142 147 147 147 149 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 38 36 38 40 46 47 52 55 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 15 10 13 12 9 2 -8 -20 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 0 -4 -30 -30 -26 -2 -2 -3 24 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 313 365 446 537 637 846 1058 1277 1500 1692 1875 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 161.1 162.3 163.5 164.7 165.8 168.1 170.3 172.5 174.7 176.6 178.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 9 10 14 16 18 23 29 32 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.1 161.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/26/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 512.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.11 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/26/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##