* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GILMA EP072024 08/27/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 73 67 62 56 51 44 37 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 90 82 73 67 62 56 51 44 37 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 90 84 78 72 67 59 54 48 44 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 16 19 16 12 13 12 15 24 32 29 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -1 0 1 -3 -3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 252 273 279 271 262 273 252 244 253 256 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.9 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 122 127 127 125 122 121 117 119 122 126 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -52.1 -53.0 -54.3 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 38 37 38 38 40 43 44 42 42 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 19 8 10 14 18 20 22 5 0 -16 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -33 -26 -6 4 16 8 -3 5 -15 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 11 9 6 8 9 6 4 5 2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1695 1579 1462 1346 1229 995 763 547 314 164 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.2 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 138.7 139.8 140.9 142.0 143.1 145.3 147.5 149.6 152.0 154.3 156.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -23. -28. -34. -39. -46. -53. -58. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.4 138.7
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072024 GILMA 08/27/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.38 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 822.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072024 GILMA 08/27/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##