* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP082024 08/27/24 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 41 38 36 33 31 29 28 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 41 38 36 33 31 29 28 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 40 35 31 28 26 24 22 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 9 9 7 8 8 12 12 17 22 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 6 1 0 4 6 3 7 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 310 309 301 265 257 250 220 227 212 225 219 225 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.1 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.7 26.8 26.3 26.7 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 124 128 127 123 120 121 132 127 132 124 125 126 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 56 54 52 49 50 48 48 45 44 43 40 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 16 15 13 11 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -22 -31 -34 -32 -22 -32 -22 -19 -8 -19 -25 -37 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 1 -4 2 13 13 8 5 -6 -21 -2 4 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 4 2 4 1 1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1719 1789 1860 1934 2011 2188 2010 1755 1468 1180 876 585 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.7 17.9 17.6 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.0 129.1 130.2 131.2 133.4 135.8 138.2 141.0 143.8 146.7 149.5 152.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 1 5 0 0 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -20. -22. -21. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 127.0
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082024 HECTOR 08/27/24 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.38 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.40 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 5.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
SDCON: .6% 3.8% .6% .5% .5% 0% .5% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082024 HECTOR 08/27/24 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##