* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/28/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 39 38 37 35 31 29 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 39 38 37 35 31 29 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 40 36 33 30 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 40 40 40 40 41 42 41 40 28 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -4 -1 4 1 3 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 278 278 274 270 271 273 281 282 275 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 142 146 147 146 145 147 146 146 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 40 43 43 43 51 55 63 65 63 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 8 7 7 9 13 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 16 11 15 12 0 9 24 50 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 6 -1 -2 -5 16 17 2 10 0 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 751 849 948 1048 1149 1339 1532 1685 1829 1901 1931 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.7 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 167.3 168.3 169.3 170.3 171.3 173.2 175.1 176.6 178.0 178.7 179.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 13 18 24 37 33 23 27 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -4. 1. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -14. -16. -13. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.3 167.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/28/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 407.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 1.0% .5% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/28/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##