* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/29/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 40 38 37 35 38 41 42 41 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 40 38 37 35 38 41 42 41 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 39 36 34 34 35 37 38 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 43 45 44 41 45 39 31 14 9 10 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -2 2 2 -2 0 1 0 -7 -6 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 273 274 274 273 277 288 272 253 197 68 44 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.7 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 148 148 149 147 146 148 146 144 145 141 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -54.6 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 44 47 49 55 64 65 69 70 68 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 11 15 18 19 19 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 14 9 2 0 15 38 58 57 49 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -8 -8 0 9 -4 5 32 36 9 -9 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0 3 4 8 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 987 1067 1147 1244 1340 1471 1572 1685 1733 1821 1961 2167 2422 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.8 24.1 25.4 26.5 27.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 169.7 170.5 171.3 172.3 173.2 174.5 175.5 176.6 177.0 177.7 178.9 180.9 183.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 6 7 7 8 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 19 25 37 39 35 30 21 16 12 13 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 1. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -7. -4. -3. -4. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.7 169.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/29/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.5 58.2 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 1.0% .5% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/29/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##