* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/29/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 35 34 35 36 39 38 35 31 29 27 28 28 30 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 35 34 35 36 39 38 35 31 29 27 28 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 33 32 29 28 28 30 32 33 32 29 28 27 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 43 42 42 39 43 44 33 23 9 4 6 16 17 25 20 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 -6 -7 -4 -4 0 -2 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 274 273 274 274 275 285 288 273 207 65 69 49 70 89 113 115 151 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 149 148 147 148 146 146 145 142 140 145 146 145 146 141 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -54.9 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 40 43 46 49 50 59 64 66 70 69 67 62 58 56 55 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 9 11 14 16 18 17 16 16 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 0 0 -3 6 28 43 60 55 48 26 8 -6 -1 -11 -34 200 MB DIV 3 -8 0 7 6 -9 30 14 26 -30 -5 -28 -21 -14 -39 -67 -41 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 4 4 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 -4 LAND (KM) 1090 1169 1249 1330 1411 1522 1634 1698 1782 1939 2122 2308 2490 2801 2638 2360 2152 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.5 24.8 25.9 26.7 27.2 27.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 170.7 171.5 172.3 173.1 173.9 175.0 176.1 176.7 177.4 178.8 180.5 182.3 184.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 11 15 15 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 27 36 39 36 35 25 17 14 14 11 13 13 10 10 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 6. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -4. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 2. 6. 9. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -12. -12. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.7 170.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/29/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/29/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##