* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HONE CP012024 08/29/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 29 31 34 38 40 36 34 31 28 28 28 28 30 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 29 31 34 38 40 36 34 31 28 28 28 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 26 25 23 23 24 25 27 27 26 24 23 22 21 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 41 39 43 46 40 29 10 7 7 13 13 16 20 12 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -1 0 1 -2 -7 -4 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 275 275 274 275 277 291 273 235 188 63 26 58 70 101 85 83 38 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 28.2 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 147 148 147 148 151 148 146 140 141 142 143 149 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -55.2 -55.6 -55.1 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 -1.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 43 46 49 50 54 63 66 70 72 73 66 63 59 56 49 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 8 11 14 15 16 17 17 16 16 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 9 1 1 -2 -2 17 36 45 47 46 25 18 -17 -8 -2 -18 -68 200 MB DIV 0 2 17 19 0 17 16 24 12 -6 9 -18 0 -10 -58 -97 -87 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 -2 3 3 5 3 1 0 1 -2 2 -8 3 -4 LAND (KM) 1180 1249 1320 1400 1482 1573 1644 1714 1838 2026 2210 2382 2505 2795 2423 2122 1910 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.9 24.2 25.8 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.3 173.0 173.8 174.6 175.5 176.2 176.8 177.8 179.5 181.3 183.0 184.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 6 5 6 8 9 8 8 6 10 17 17 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 35 38 35 35 33 23 19 15 13 11 13 11 9 13 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 5. 8. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -1. 3. 5. 1. -1. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.9 171.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/29/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% .5% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/29/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##