* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HONE CP012024 08/29/24 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 31 35 41 47 49 47 45 43 40 40 41 38 37
V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 31 35 41 47 49 47 45 43 40 40 41 38 37
V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 30 29 28 28 29 31 33 33 32 30 28 26 25 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 41 41 44 46 46 35 22 7 3 3 14 9 23 24 19 16 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 3 -6 -6 -3 -4 0 1 7 0 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 274 272 273 275 282 284 267 190 315 70 43 80 84 106 130 180 231
SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.1 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 147 148 147 148 149 147 142 140 141 137 143 145 136 133
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 -55.4 -55.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 46 47 48 52 57 64 69 70 71 66 61 59 54 49 44 35 32
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 9 13 15 17 18 18 19 18 19 20 19 18
850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 -2 0 5 27 36 46 37 52 34 26 55 78 74 21 -49
200 MB DIV 14 19 7 8 -12 19 15 19 -10 1 -8 -15 0 -12 -22 -9 68
700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -3 -1 1 6 3 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -8 -18 -9
LAND (KM) 1227 1292 1357 1424 1491 1582 1628 1706 1922 2147 2326 2490 2630 2619 2326 2050 1776
LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.7 23.7 25.1 26.9 27.4 27.1 27.5 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 172.1 172.8 173.4 174.0 174.7 175.6 176.0 176.6 178.4 180.6 182.5 184.1 185.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 10 11 9 8 8 11 15 15 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 35 41 39 36 35 28 21 17 13 9 14 12 8 7 14 3 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. 3. 6. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 1. -4. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 3. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 6. 12. 14. 12. 10. 8. 5. 5. 6. 3. 2.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.3 172.1
** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012024 HONE 08/29/24 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.67 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.03 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.64 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
SDCON: 0% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% .5% 0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012024 HONE 08/29/24 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##